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Patria Credito Imobiliario Indice De Precos Fundo De Investimento Imobiliario Re GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026

1 Day

16.26%

decreased by 1.61%

1 Week

16.64%

decreased by 1.23%

1 Month

18.06%

increased by 0.19%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:32 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

09/30/2024

to

09/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Patria Credito Imobiliario Indice De Precos Fundo De Investimento Imobiliario Re GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 30, 2019 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 560 trading days (~2.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.52 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~560 daysv = 3.52 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst20.9471
2.15**
αARCH0.1113
14.40***
βGARCH0.9988
1,432.95***
νDF3.5239
8.37***

0.999

Persistence

560d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

20.9471
2.15**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1113
14.40***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9988
1,432.95***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.5239
8.37***

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

560 days