V-Lab
Patria Credito Imobiliario Indice De Precos Fundo De Investimento Imobiliario Re GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
16.26%
1 Week
16.64%
1 Month
18.06%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:32 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 30, 2019 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 560 trading days (~2.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.52 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 20.9471 | 2.15** |
| αARCH | 0.1113 | 14.40*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9988 | 1,432.95*** |
| νDF | 3.5239 | 8.37*** |
0.999
Persistence560d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 20.9471 | 2.15** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1113 | 14.40*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9988 | 1,432.95*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.5239 | 8.37*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
560 days
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