V-Lab
Allurion Technologies Inc EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
218.36%
increased by 37.76%
1 Week
236.43%
increased by 55.83%
1 Month
334.39%
increased by 153.79%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 09:25 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 5, 2021 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 217 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
EGARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~217 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0936 | 1.44 |
| αARCH | 0.4755 | 2.14** |
| βGARCH | 0.9968 | 239.04*** |
| γleverage | -0.1436 | -0.98 |
0.997
Persistence217d
Half-lifeσ
EGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0936 | 1.44 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.4755 | 2.14** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9968 | 239.04*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1436 | -0.98 |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
217 days
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