Gmo Media Inc Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Liquidity prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
6,011.80
1 Week
4,143.64
1 Month
2,430.63
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 19, 2026 at 01:50 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 23, 2015 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 66% more after negative returns
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 3.13*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0981 | 15.89*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8694 | 272.97*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0650 | 6.20*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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