V-Lab
S&P GSCI Petroleum Spot Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
33.99%
decreased by 1.19%
1 Week
33.92%
decreased by 1.26%
1 Month
33.65%
decreased by 1.53%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 11:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 8, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 37 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8215 | 5.21*** |
| αARCH | 0.0743 | 7.81*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9073 | 89.25*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | 0.0093 | 1.33 |
| γ2 | -0.0250 | -2.51** |
| γ3 | 0.0328 | 4.25*** |
| γ4 | -0.0339 | -2.64*** |
0.982
Persistence37d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8215 | 5.21*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0743 | 7.81*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9073 | 89.25*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | 0.0093 | 1.33 |
| γ2 | -0.0250 | -2.51** |
| γ3 | 0.0328 | 4.25*** |
| γ4 | -0.0339 | -2.64*** |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
37 days
Other S&P GSCI Petroleum Spot Index Analyses
Other Spline-GARCH Analyses on Commodities