S&P GSCI Petroleum Spot Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
28.45%
increased by 0.67%
1 Week
28.55%
increased by 0.77%
1 Month
28.91%
increased by 1.13%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:52 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 37 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
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Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8188 | 5.20*** |
| αARCH | 0.0741 | 7.81*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9075 | 89.61*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | 0.0091 | 1.31 |
| γ2 | -0.0247 | -2.49** |
| γ3 | 0.0328 | 4.28*** |
| γ4 | -0.0346 | -2.71*** |
0.982
Persistence37d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8188 | 5.20*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0741 | 7.81*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9075 | 89.61*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | 0.0091 | 1.31 |
| γ2 | -0.0247 | -2.49** |
| γ3 | 0.0328 | 4.28*** |
| γ4 | -0.0346 | -2.71*** |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
37 days
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