V-Lab
S&P GSCI Platinum Index APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
39.43%
1 Week
39.34%
1 Month
39.03%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:56 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 169 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. The volatility power δ = 1.74 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0111 | 4.13*** |
| αARCH | 0.0522 | 7.50*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9478 | 153.12*** |
| γleverage | -0.0995 | -1.65* |
| δpower | 1.7361 | 8.64*** |
0.996
Persistence169d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0111 | 4.13*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0522 | 7.50*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9478 | 153.12*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0995 | -1.65* |
δ power Transformation power | 1.7361 | 8.64*** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
169 days
Other S&P GSCI Platinum Index Analyses
Other APARCH Analyses on Commodities