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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Platinum Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

41.32%

decreased by 1.00%

1 Week

41.34%

decreased by 0.98%

1 Month

41.42%

decreased by 0.90%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:56 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Platinum Index SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 84 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~84 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.9042
6.27***
αARCH0.0468
7.74***
βGARCH0.9450
143.33***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0018
2.41**

0.992

Persistence

84d

Half-life
τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9042
6.27***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0468
7.74***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9450
143.33***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0018
2.41**

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

84 days