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S&P GSCI Nickel Spot Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

19.46%

increased by 0.08%

1 Week

19.84%

increased by 0.46%

1 Month

21.22%

increased by 1.84%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:51 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Nickel Spot Index AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 8, 1993 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 66 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 66 days.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 66-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0408
3.92***
αARCH0.0473
5.91***
βGARCH0.9423
107.69***
γleverage-0.3362
-1.72*

0.990

Persistence

66d

Half-life
σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0408
3.92***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0473
5.91***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9423
107.69***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.3362
-1.72*

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

66 days