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S&P GSCI Nickel Spot Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

19.52%

decreased by 0.20%

1 Week

19.91%

increased by 0.19%

1 Month

21.31%

increased by 1.59%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:54 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Nickel Spot Index AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 8, 1993 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 64 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 64 days.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 64-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0420
3.94***
αARCH0.0476
5.90***
βGARCH0.9417
106.54***
γleverage-0.3314
-1.70*

0.989

Persistence

64d

Half-life
σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0420
3.94***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0476
5.90***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9417
106.54***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.3314
-1.70*

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

64 days