V-Lab
S&P GSCI Nickel Spot Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
19.52%
decreased by 0.20%
1 Week
19.91%
increased by 0.19%
1 Month
21.31%
increased by 1.59%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:54 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 8, 1993 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 64 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 64 days.
σ
AGARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 64-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0420 | 3.94*** |
| αARCH | 0.0476 | 5.90*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9417 | 106.54*** |
| γleverage | -0.3314 | -1.70* |
0.989
Persistence64d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0420 | 3.94*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0476 | 5.90*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9417 | 106.54*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.3314 | -1.70* |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
64 days
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