S&P GSCI Nickel Spot Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
19.46%
increased by 0.08%
1 Week
19.84%
increased by 0.46%
1 Month
21.22%
increased by 1.84%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:51 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 8, 1993 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 66 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 66 days.
σ
AGARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 66-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0408 | 3.92*** |
| αARCH | 0.0473 | 5.91*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9423 | 107.69*** |
| γleverage | -0.3362 | -1.72* |
0.990
Persistence66d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0408 | 3.92*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0473 | 5.91*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9423 | 107.69*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.3362 | -1.72* |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
66 days
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