V-Lab
S&P GSCI Gold Spot Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
24.61%
decreased by 0.52%
1 Week
24.72%
decreased by 0.41%
1 Month
25.10%
decreased by 0.03%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:57 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 46 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.5258 | 4.42*** |
| αARCH | 0.0443 | 4.71*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9408 | 79.26*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | 0.0691 | 4.80*** |
| γ2 | -0.0922 | -3.99*** |
| γ3 | 0.0244 | 1.40 |
| γ4 | -0.0065 | -0.44 |
| γ5 | 0.0339 | 1.49 |
0.985
Persistence46d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5258 | 4.42*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0443 | 4.71*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9408 | 79.26*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | 0.0691 | 4.80*** |
| γ2 | -0.0922 | -3.99*** |
| γ3 | 0.0244 | 1.40 |
| γ4 | -0.0065 | -0.44 |
| γ5 | 0.0339 | 1.49 |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
46 days
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