V-Lab
Fii Mogno Hoteis GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
50.86%
decreased by 3.57%
1 Week
50.55%
decreased by 3.88%
1 Month
49.58%
decreased by 4.85%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:34 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 14, 2020 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 18 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 18 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 18-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.3201 | 1.45 |
| αARCH | 0.0760 | 1.55 |
| βGARCH | 0.8452 | 20.93*** |
| γleverage | 0.0828 | 0.79 |
0.963
Persistence18d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.3201 | 1.45 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0760 | 1.55 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8452 | 20.93*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0828 | 0.79 |
Persistence:
0.963
Half-life:
18 days
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