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V-Lab

Fii Mogno Hoteis Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026

1 Day

52.21%

decreased by 5.96%

1 Week

55.73%

decreased by 2.44%

1 Month

58.93%

increased by 0.76%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:34 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

09/30/2024

to

09/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Fii Mogno Hoteis S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 14, 2020 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.8807
2.24**
αARCH0.2149
4.11***
βGARCH0.5071
4.90***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=7
γ14.8225
1.98**
γ2-4.7679
-1.40
γ3-0.9059
-0.38
γ42.7705
0.96
γ5-5.0520
-1.66*
γ65.5750
2.18**
γ7-3.3606
-2.28**

0.722

Persistence

2d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.8807
2.24**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2149
4.11***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5071
4.90***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=7
γ14.8225
1.98**
γ2-4.7679
-1.40
γ3-0.9059
-0.38
γ42.7705
0.96
γ5-5.0520
-1.66*
γ65.5750
2.18**
γ7-3.3606
-2.28**

Persistence:

0.722

Half-life:

2 days