ICE BofA Single-A US Corporate Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026
1 Day
4.83%
1 Week
4.83%
1 Month
4.83%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 02:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 89 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.83 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 0.0938 | 2.58*** |
| αscore | 0.0378 | 9.06*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9922 | 295.48*** |
| νDF | 8.8280 | 1.03 |
0.992
Persistence89d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 0.0938 | 2.58*** |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0378 | 9.06*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9922 | 295.48*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.8280 | 1.03 |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
89 days
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