ICE BofA Single-A US Corporate Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 23rd, 2026
1 Day
3.91%
decreased by 0.05%
1 Week
3.93%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Month
3.99%
increased by 0.03%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 23, 2026 at 02:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 89 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.82 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0937 | 10.28*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0381 | 36.28*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9922 | 1,172.82*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.8198 | 4.15*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
89 days
Other ICE BofA Single-A US Corporate Index Analyses
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on Bond Indices