V-Lab
Samsung Electronics Co Ltd APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 7th, 2026
1 Day
86.91%
1 Week
86.70%
1 Month
85.89%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, September 6, 2026 at 12:54 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 209 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. The volatility power δ = 1.82 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 75% more than positive returns
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0248 | 2.95*** |
| αARCH | 0.0488 | 7.69*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9500 | 176.06*** |
| γleverage | 0.1518 | 3.21*** |
| δpower | 1.8207 | 7.41*** |
0.997
Persistence209d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0248 | 2.95*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0488 | 7.69*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9500 | 176.06*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1518 | 3.21*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.8207 | 7.41*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
209 days
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