V-Lab
S&P GSCI Precious Metals Spot Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
25.42%
decreased by 0.50%
1 Week
25.48%
decreased by 0.44%
1 Month
25.71%
decreased by 0.21%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:56 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 50 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1194 | 4.69*** |
| αARCH | 0.0405 | 4.33*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9457 | 79.13*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | 0.0305 | 3.98*** |
| γ2 | -0.0416 | -3.72*** |
| γ3 | 0.0057 | 0.60 |
| γ4 | 0.0265 | 2.08** |
0.986
Persistence50d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1194 | 4.69*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0405 | 4.33*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9457 | 79.13*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | 0.0305 | 3.98*** |
| γ2 | -0.0416 | -3.72*** |
| γ3 | 0.0057 | 0.60 |
| γ4 | 0.0265 | 2.08** |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
50 days
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