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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Biofuel Spot Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

20.42%

increased by 0.49%

1 Week

20.30%

increased by 0.37%

1 Month

19.95%

increased by 0.02%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:59 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Biofuel Spot Index AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 16, 1995 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 14 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 14 days.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 14-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0690
10.39***
αARCH0.1052
16.20***
βGARCH0.8469
171.24***
γleverage-0.0365
-0.64

0.952

Persistence

14d

Half-life
σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0690
10.39***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1052
16.20***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8469
171.24***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0365
-0.64

Persistence:

0.952

Half-life:

14 days