V-Lab
S&P GSCI Biofuel Spot Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
20.42%
increased by 0.49%
1 Week
20.30%
increased by 0.37%
1 Month
19.95%
increased by 0.02%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:59 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 16, 1995 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 14 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 14 days.
σ
AGARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 14-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0690 | 10.39*** |
| αARCH | 0.1052 | 16.20*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8469 | 171.24*** |
| γleverage | -0.0365 | -0.64 |
0.952
Persistence14d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0690 | 10.39*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1052 | 16.20*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8469 | 171.24*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0365 | -0.64 |
Persistence:
0.952
Half-life:
14 days
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