V-Lab
SBA Communications Corp Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
29.68%
decreased by 0.27%
1 Week
30.25%
increased by 0.30%
1 Month
32.02%
increased by 2.07%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:57 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 16, 1999 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 21 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8950 | 3.95*** |
| αARCH | 0.0717 | 8.22*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8959 | 74.50*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | -0.2393 | -4.12*** |
| γ2 | 0.3240 | 3.95*** |
| γ3 | -0.1281 | -2.49** |
| γ4 | 0.1109 | 2.71*** |
| γ5 | -0.0966 | -2.29** |
| γ6 | 0.0582 | 1.21 |
| γ7 | -0.0523 | -1.38 |
0.968
Persistence21d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8950 | 3.95*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0717 | 8.22*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8959 | 74.50*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | -0.2393 | -4.12*** |
| γ2 | 0.3240 | 3.95*** |
| γ3 | -0.1281 | -2.49** |
| γ4 | 0.1109 | 2.71*** |
| γ5 | -0.0966 | -2.29** |
| γ6 | 0.0582 | 1.21 |
| γ7 | -0.0523 | -1.38 |
Persistence:
0.968
Half-life:
21 days
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