Vanguard Ultra-Short Bond ETF Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility Prediction for Friday, February 13th, 2026:1.33% (-0.04%)
Parameter Estimates
| param | t-stat | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.4916 | 2.39 | |
| 0.3385 | 3.77 | |
| 0.0308 | 0.53 | |
| 5.1465 | 2.00 | |
| -8.9121 | -2.61 | |
| 5.9436 | 3.61 | |
| -4.0564 | -3.12 | |
| 1.9465 | 1.64 | |
| 2.3646 | 1.59 | |
| -5.5022 | -1.61 |
Estimation Period:
Apr 7, 2021 to Feb 6, 2026
Apr 7, 2021 to Feb 6, 2026
News Impact Curve
Volatility Forecasts
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