V-Lab
PowerX Inc Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
159.56%
1 Week
155.20%
1 Month
145.66%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 07:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 19, 2025 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 18% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets. The volatility power δ = 0.50 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2742 | 0.86 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1360 | 8.93*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7944 | 29.71*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1614 | -2.61*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.5000 | 1.13 |
Persistence:
0.906
Half-life:
7 days
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