V-Lab
ABN AMRO Group NV Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
171.80
decreased by 6.26
1 Week
169.58
decreased by 8.48
1 Month
177.69
decreased by 0.37
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 01:10 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 19, 2015 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 123 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 131% more after negative returns
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.0687 | 9.74*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0372 | 9.87*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9328 | 335.66*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0488 | 8.23*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
123 days
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