Vanguard Mortgage-Backed Securities ETF Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility Prediction for Thursday, February 12th, 2026:3.77% (+0.15%)
Parameter Estimates
| param | t-stat | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.6169 | 4.32 | |
| 0.1485 | 2.98 | |
| 0.7839 | 17.36 | |
| -0.4977 | -2.28 | |
| 0.9260 | 2.87 | |
| -0.8188 | -3.42 | |
| 0.7208 | 2.81 | |
| -0.7217 | -3.25 | |
| 1.1929 | 6.10 | |
| -1.5734 | -7.40 | |
| 0.9220 | 3.24 |
Estimation Period:
Nov 23, 2009 to Feb 6, 2026
Nov 23, 2009 to Feb 6, 2026
News Impact Curve
Volatility Forecasts
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