NVIDIA Corp GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, November 4th, 2026
1 Day
38.57%
increased by 0.12%
1 Week
39.06%
increased by 0.61%
1 Month
40.88%
increased by 2.43%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, November 3, 2026 at 10:26 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 22, 1999 to Oct 30, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 125 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~125 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.1080 | 2.94*** |
| αARCH | 0.0535 | 5.68*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9409 | 96.53*** |
0.994
Persistence125d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1080 | 2.94*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0535 | 5.68*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9409 | 96.53*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
125 days
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