V-Lab
T-REX 2x Long CIFR Daily Target ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
274.82%
decreased by 30.25%
1 Week
261.62%
decreased by 43.45%
1 Month
236.65%
decreased by 68.42%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 09:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 21, 2025 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days. The volatility power δ = 0.81 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0000 | 1.31 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0724 | 7.52*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8270 | 22.70*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 1.0000 | 25.77*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.8060 | 3.24*** |
Persistence:
0.877
Half-life:
5 days
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