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V-Lab

T-REX 2x Long CIFR Daily Target ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026

1 Day

274.82%

decreased by 30.25%

1 Week

261.62%

decreased by 43.45%

1 Month

236.65%

decreased by 68.42%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 09:49 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of T-REX 2x Long CIFR Daily Target ETF APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 21, 2025 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days. The volatility power δ = 0.81 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0000
1.31
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0724
7.52***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8270
22.70***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

1.0000
25.77***
δ

power

Transformation power

0.8060
3.24***

Persistence:

0.877

Half-life:

5 days