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V-Lab

Amazon.com Inc GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

44.29%

decreased by 0.36%

1 Week

44.30%

decreased by 0.35%

1 Month

44.32%

decreased by 0.33%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 09:33 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

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1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of Amazon.com Inc GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 16, 1997 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 256 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0222
7.76***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0176
19.16***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9797
887.37***

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

256 days