Arco Vara As GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Thursday, May 21st, 2026
1 Day
33.34%
decreased by 1.01%
1 Week
33.74%
decreased by 0.61%
1 Month
35.31%
increased by 0.96%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, May 21, 2026 at 06:39 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
| param | t-stat | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0537 | 14.84 | |
| 0.0946 | 15.38 | |
| 0.9054 | 288.61 | |
| 0.0001 | 0.01 |
Estimation Period:
Jun 22, 2007 to May 15, 2026
Jun 22, 2007 to May 15, 2026
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