Sun Communities Inc Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Liquidity prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
91.55
1 Week
98.13
1 Month
105.95
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:19 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 9, 1993 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 56% more after negative returns
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4526 | 6.53*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0546 | 31.89*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9301 | 738.15*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0306 | 12.46*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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