V-Lab
Japan Hotel Reit Invt Corp GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
17.29%
decreased by 0.35%
1 Week
17.71%
increased by 0.07%
1 Month
19.23%
increased by 1.59%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 09:27 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 14, 2006 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 84 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~84 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0394 | 2.34** |
| αARCH | 0.0453 | 2.65*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9236 | 44.87*** |
| γleverage | 0.0457 | 1.62 |
0.992
Persistence84d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0394 | 2.34** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0453 | 2.65*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9236 | 44.87*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0457 | 1.62 |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
84 days
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