V-Lab
Japan Hotel Reit Invt Corp Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
16.10%
decreased by 0.75%
1 Week
16.94%
increased by 0.09%
1 Month
18.69%
increased by 1.84%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 09:28 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 14, 2006 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 7 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.2421 | 2.92*** |
| αARCH | 0.1398 | 7.29*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7657 | 24.55*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -0.4375 | -3.91*** |
| γ2 | 0.5671 | 3.43*** |
| γ3 | -0.2216 | -2.33** |
| γ4 | 0.2213 | 3.60*** |
| γ5 | -0.2410 | -4.81*** |
| γ6 | 0.1556 | 4.24*** |
0.906
Persistence7d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2421 | 2.92*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1398 | 7.29*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7657 | 24.55*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -0.4375 | -3.91*** |
| γ2 | 0.5671 | 3.43*** |
| γ3 | -0.2216 | -2.33** |
| γ4 | 0.2213 | 3.60*** |
| γ5 | -0.2410 | -4.81*** |
| γ6 | 0.1556 | 4.24*** |
Persistence:
0.906
Half-life:
7 days
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