V-Lab
Japan Hotel Reit Invt Corp MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
17.78%
decreased by 1.37%
1 Week
18.74%
decreased by 0.41%
1 Month
20.12%
increased by 0.97%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 09:28 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 14, 2006 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 153% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 153% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 21 | |
| αARCH | 0.1007 | 3.63*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6097 | 12.04*** |
| γleverage | 0.1538 | 2.54** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0223 | 1.71* |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0364 | 4.13*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9578 | 78.56*** |
0.787
Persistence3d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1007 | 3.63*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6097 | 12.04*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1538 | 2.54** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0223 | 1.71* |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0364 | 4.13*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9578 | 78.56*** |
Persistence:
0.787
Half-life:
3 days
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