V-Lab
NSI NV GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
18.27%
increased by 4.07%
1 Week
18.74%
increased by 4.54%
1 Month
20.32%
increased by 6.12%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 09:33 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 3, 1998 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 40 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 40 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 40-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0581 | 4.38*** |
| αARCH | 0.1107 | 4.51*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8604 | 69.69*** |
| γleverage | 0.0229 | 0.55 |
0.983
Persistence40d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0581 | 4.38*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1107 | 4.51*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8604 | 69.69*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0229 | 0.55 |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
40 days
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