V-Lab
NSI NV MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
20.04%
increased by 6.27%
1 Week
19.40%
increased by 5.63%
1 Month
18.77%
increased by 5.00%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 09:34 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 3, 1998 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 3-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 21 | |
| αARCH | 0.1683 | 5.96*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6053 | 16.78*** |
| γleverage | 0.0413 | 1.05 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0034 | 1.56 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0174 | 3.92*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9813 | 190.13*** |
0.794
Persistence3d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1683 | 5.96*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6053 | 16.78*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0413 | 1.05 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0034 | 1.56 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0174 | 3.92*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9813 | 190.13*** |
Persistence:
0.794
Half-life:
3 days
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