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V-Lab

NSI NV MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026

1 Day

20.04%

increased by 6.27%

1 Week

19.40%

increased by 5.63%

1 Month

18.77%

increased by 5.00%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 09:34 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

09/30/2024

to

09/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of NSI NV MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 3, 1998 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 3-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow21
αARCH0.1683
5.96***
βGARCH0.6053
16.78***
γleverage0.0413
1.05
λ₁tau intercept0.0034
1.56
λ₂forecast adj.0.0174
3.92***
λ₃tau persistence0.9813
190.13***

0.794

Persistence

3d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1683
5.96***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6053
16.78***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0413
1.05
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0034
1.56
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0174
3.92***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9813
190.13***

Persistence:

0.794

Half-life:

3 days