V-Lab
Public Storage Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
21.45%
decreased by 0.48%
1 Week
21.80%
decreased by 0.13%
1 Month
22.96%
increased by 1.03%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 11:15 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 26 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
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Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2614 | 9.49*** |
| αARCH | 0.0640 | 7.09*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9097 | 79.71*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0018 | 3.11*** |
0.974
Persistence26d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2614 | 9.49*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0640 | 7.09*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9097 | 79.71*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0018 | 3.11*** |
Persistence:
0.974
Half-life:
26 days
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