V-Lab
Hedge Logistica Fundo de Investimento Imobiliario APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
10.80%
1 Week
11.23%
1 Month
12.72%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:24 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 5, 2020 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 43 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 43 days. The volatility power δ = 1.43 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0258 | 2.61*** |
| αARCH | 0.1052 | 3.73*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8948 | 29.72*** |
| γleverage | -0.0359 | -0.16 |
| δpower | 1.4331 | 4.08*** |
0.984
Persistence43d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0258 | 2.61*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1052 | 3.73*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8948 | 29.72*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0359 | -0.16 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.4331 | 4.08*** |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
43 days
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