V-Lab
Esr-Reit GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
23.78%
decreased by 0.23%
1 Week
29.56%
increased by 5.55%
1 Month
42.57%
increased by 18.56%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 07:52 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 29, 2022 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 16 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 16 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 16-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.7335 | 2.36** |
| αARCH | 0.3833 | 1.66* |
| βGARCH | 0.5978 | 9.37*** |
| γleverage | -0.0475 | -0.15 |
0.957
Persistence16d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7335 | 2.36** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3833 | 1.66* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5978 | 9.37*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0475 | -0.15 |
Persistence:
0.957
Half-life:
16 days
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