Stride Property Group Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026
1 Day
72,126.26
increased by 4,837.70
1 Week
64,414.56
decreased by 2,874.00
1 Month
53,288.72
decreased by 13,999.84
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 11:44 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 16, 2010 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.7279 | 5.00*** |
| αARCH | 0.1886 | 7.13*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6543 | 17.96*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.8371 | -1.96* |
| γ2 | 1.4656 | 2.08** |
| γ3 | -0.9817 | -2.19** |
| γ4 | 0.5242 | 1.77* |
| γ5 | 0.0188 | 0.08 |
| γ6 | -0.6536 | -2.90*** |
| γ7 | 0.9496 | 4.76*** |
| γ8 | -0.5291 | -2.52** |
| γ9 | -0.4029 | -1.57 |
| γ10 | 1.0516 | 2.71*** |
0.843
Persistence4d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.7279 | 5.00*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1886 | 7.13*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6543 | 17.96*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.8371 | -1.96* |
| γ2 | 1.4656 | 2.08** |
| γ3 | -0.9817 | -2.19** |
| γ4 | 0.5242 | 1.77* |
| γ5 | 0.0188 | 0.08 |
| γ6 | -0.6536 | -2.90*** |
| γ7 | 0.9496 | 4.76*** |
| γ8 | -0.5291 | -2.52** |
| γ9 | -0.4029 | -1.57 |
| γ10 | 1.0516 | 2.71*** |
Persistence:
0.843
Half-life:
4 days
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