ECA Marcellus Trust I Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, October 30th, 2026
1 Day
8,901,497.00
increased by 75,920.00
1 Week
9,167,920.50
increased by 342,343.50
1 Month
12,970,709.90
increased by 4,145,132.90
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 09:07 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 1, 2010 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 6795 trading days (~27.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~6795 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0820 | 3.54*** |
| αARCH | 0.1040 | 10.33*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8959 | 88.81*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0357 | 3.35*** |
1.000
Persistence6795d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0820 | 3.54*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1040 | 10.33*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8959 | 88.81*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0357 | 3.35*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
6795 days
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