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ECA Marcellus Trust I Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Friday, October 30th, 2026

1 Day

8,901,497.00

increased by 75,920.00

1 Week

9,167,920.50

increased by 342,343.50

1 Month

12,970,709.90

increased by 4,145,132.90

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 09:07 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/29/2024

to

10/29/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ECA Marcellus Trust I ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 1, 2010 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 6795 trading days (~27.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~6795 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.0820
3.54***
αARCH0.1040
10.33***
βGARCH0.8959
88.81***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0357
3.35***

1.000

Persistence

6795d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0820
3.54***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1040
10.33***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8959
88.81***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0357
3.35***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

6795 days