PermRock Royalty Trust Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, October 30th, 2026
1 Day
445,721.90
decreased by 66,031.30
1 Week
428,245.42
decreased by 83,507.78
1 Month
266,351.25
decreased by 245,401.95
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 10:39 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 2, 2018 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 54 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0550 | 7.84*** |
| αARCH | 0.1212 | 8.55*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8661 | 57.34*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0108 | -0.69 |
0.987
Persistence54d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0550 | 7.84*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1212 | 8.55*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8661 | 57.34*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0108 | -0.69 |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
54 days
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