North European Oil Royalty Trust Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, October 30th, 2026
1 Day
56,680.23
increased by 1,054.78
1 Week
56,611.98
increased by 986.53
1 Month
64,465.75
increased by 8,840.30
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 10:38 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 43 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.9983 | 7.44*** |
| αARCH | 0.0979 | 13.85*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8862 | 112.54*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.0195 | -5.07*** |
| γ2 | 0.0407 | 6.46*** |
| γ3 | -0.0463 | -6.54*** |
0.984
Persistence43d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.9983 | 7.44*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0979 | 13.85*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8862 | 112.54*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.0195 | -5.07*** |
| γ2 | 0.0407 | 6.46*** |
| γ3 | -0.0463 | -6.54*** |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
43 days
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