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North European Oil Royalty Trust Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Friday, October 30th, 2026

1 Day

56,680.23

increased by 1,054.78

1 Week

56,611.98

increased by 986.53

1 Month

64,465.75

increased by 8,840.30

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 10:38 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/29/2024

to

10/29/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of North European Oil Royalty Trust ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 43 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.9983
7.44***
αARCH0.0979
13.85***
βGARCH0.8862
112.54***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=3
γ1-0.0195
-5.07***
γ20.0407
6.46***
γ3-0.0463
-6.54***

0.984

Persistence

43d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.9983
7.44***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0979
13.85***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8862
112.54***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=3
γ1-0.0195
-5.07***
γ20.0407
6.46***
γ3-0.0463
-6.54***

Persistence:

0.984

Half-life:

43 days