MSC Income Fund Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, October 30th, 2026
1 Day
7,136.52
increased by 326.34
1 Week
7,187.24
increased by 377.06
1 Month
5,901.01
decreased by 909.17
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 10:37 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 30, 2025 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 44 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0604 | 6.11*** |
| αARCH | 0.1489 | 4.75*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8355 | 28.09*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.4898 | -0.68 |
0.984
Persistence44d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0604 | 6.11*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1489 | 4.75*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8355 | 28.09*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.4898 | -0.68 |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
44 days
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