Chesapeake Granite Wash Trust Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, October 30th, 2026
1 Day
6,534,578.00
decreased by 406,253.00
1 Week
7,274,961.80
increased by 334,130.80
1 Month
8,281,287.00
increased by 1,340,456.00
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 09:08 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 11, 2011 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1759 trading days (~7.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~1759 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.6751 | 5.08*** |
| αARCH | 0.1045 | 7.97*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8951 | 68.26*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0125 | 1.12 |
1.000
Persistence1759d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6751 | 5.08*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1045 | 7.97*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8951 | 68.26*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0125 | 1.12 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1759 days
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