Permianville Royalty Trust Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, October 30th, 2026
1 Day
104,513.90
increased by 71.90
1 Week
112,631.98
increased by 8,189.98
1 Month
118,976.98
increased by 14,534.98
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 10:39 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 3, 2011 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 186 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~186 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0648 | 5.46*** |
| αARCH | 0.1136 | 12.06*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8827 | 96.98*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0058 | -0.60 |
0.996
Persistence186d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0648 | 5.46*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1136 | 12.06*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8827 | 96.98*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0058 | -0.60 |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
186 days
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