V-Lab
Faria Lima Capital Recebiveis Imobiliarios I Fdo Inv Imob Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
6.59%
decreased by 0.72%
1 Week
7.47%
increased by 0.16%
1 Month
8.32%
increased by 1.01%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:33 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 27, 2021 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.7516 | 3.14*** |
| αARCH | 0.3375 | 4.62*** |
| βGARCH | 0.4134 | 3.55*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 6.0372 | 0.94 |
| γ2 | -5.5731 | -0.55 |
| γ3 | -3.4523 | -0.50 |
| γ4 | 6.5870 | 1.05 |
| γ5 | -8.0121 | -1.24 |
| γ6 | 8.4361 | 1.35 |
| γ7 | -6.7475 | -1.35 |
| γ8 | 8.9024 | 1.54 |
| γ9 | -14.2917 | -1.72* |
| γ10 | 11.3138 | 1.66* |
0.751
Persistence2d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.7516 | 3.14*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3375 | 4.62*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4134 | 3.55*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 6.0372 | 0.94 |
| γ2 | -5.5731 | -0.55 |
| γ3 | -3.4523 | -0.50 |
| γ4 | 6.5870 | 1.05 |
| γ5 | -8.0121 | -1.24 |
| γ6 | 8.4361 | 1.35 |
| γ7 | -6.7475 | -1.35 |
| γ8 | 8.9024 | 1.54 |
| γ9 | -14.2917 | -1.72* |
| γ10 | 11.3138 | 1.66* |
Persistence:
0.751
Half-life:
2 days
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