Sabine Royalty Trust ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, October 30th, 2026
1 Day
4,969.96
1 Week
4,813.38
1 Month
4,511.65
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 10:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 41 | |
| αARCH | 0.0829 | 11.27*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8482 | 48.79*** |
| γleverage | -0.0829 | -1.41 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 2.2242 | 0.48 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0398 | 4.54*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9592 | 109.27*** |
0.890
Persistence6d
Half-lifeILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 41 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0829 | 11.27*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8482 | 48.79*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0829 | -1.41 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 2.2242 | 0.48 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0398 | 4.54*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9592 | 109.27*** |
Persistence:
0.890
Half-life:
6 days
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