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Marine Petroleum Trust Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Friday, October 30th, 2026

1 Day

2,759,379.00

decreased by 197,592.00

1 Week

2,912,196.40

decreased by 44,774.60

1 Month

3,356,165.14

increased by 399,194.14

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 10:20 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/29/2024

to

10/29/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Marine Petroleum Trust ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 28, 1995 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~1386294 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst5.0000
0.00
αARCH0.0633
7.33***
βGARCH0.9294
145.60***
γleverage0.0146
0.80

1.000

Persistence

1386294d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
0.00
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0633
7.33***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9294
145.60***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0146
0.80

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1386294 days