Concord Acquisition Corp II Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, October 30th, 2025
1 Day
13,017,710.00
1 Week
13,017,710.00
1 Month
13,017,710.00
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 2, 2026 at 04:41 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 1, 2021 to Oct 29, 2025Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 5.0000 | 0.00 |
| αARCH | 0.0568 | 0.66 |
| βGARCH | 0.9497 | 16.96*** |
| γleverage | -0.0129 | -0.09 |
1.000
Persistence1386294d
Half-lifeILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0568 | 0.66 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9497 | 16.96*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0129 | -0.09 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
Other Concord Acquisition Corp II Analyses
Other Asymmetric ILLIQ Analyses on Units