S&P GSCI Gold Spot Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Monday, June 15th, 2026
1 Day
25.98%
increased by 2.05%
1 Week
26.00%
increased by 2.07%
1 Month
26.09%
increased by 2.16%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, June 13, 2026 at 12:42 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
| param | t-stat | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0024 | 10.05 | |
| 0.0552 | 17.57 | |
| 0.9608 | 491.95 | |
| -0.0319 | -9.03 |
Estimation Period:
Jan 2, 1990 to Jun 12, 2026
Jan 2, 1990 to Jun 12, 2026
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