Luxembourg Stock Exchange LuxX Index APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026
1 Day
25.99%
increased by 1.04%
1 Week
25.85%
increased by 0.90%
1 Month
25.34%
increased by 0.39%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 11, 2026 at 05:47 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 4, 1999 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 85% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.47 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0328 | 21.32*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0941 | 32.56*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8984 | 291.03*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2072 | 12.24*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.4661 | 30.66*** |
Persistence:
0.980
Half-life:
34 days
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