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V-Lab

Luxembourg Stock Exchange LuxX Index APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026

1 Day

25.99%

increased by 1.04%

1 Week

25.85%

increased by 0.90%

1 Month

25.34%

increased by 0.39%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 11, 2026 at 05:47 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Luxembourg Stock Exchange LuxX Index APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 4, 1999 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 85% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.47 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0328
21.32***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0941
32.56***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8984
291.03***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2072
12.24***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.4661
30.66***

Persistence:

0.980

Half-life:

34 days