Luxembourg Stock Exchange LuxX Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026
1 Day
24.21%
decreased by 0.16%
1 Week
24.10%
decreased by 0.27%
1 Month
23.73%
decreased by 0.64%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 11, 2026 at 05:47 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 4, 1999 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.26) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0316 | 16.35*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0918 | 33.17*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8875 | 293.31*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2586 | 11.88*** |
Persistence:
0.979
Half-life:
33 days
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