Bitcoin to US Dollar GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
35.52%
decreased by 0.95%
1 Week
38.82%
increased by 2.35%
1 Month
48.95%
increased by 12.48%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 06:02 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 17, 2010 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 46 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 46 days.
σ
GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 46-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.5701 | 4.38*** |
| αARCH | 0.1629 | 6.73*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8219 | 40.47*** |
0.985
Persistence46d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5701 | 4.38*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1629 | 6.73*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8219 | 40.47*** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
46 days
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