These terms appear throughout the page. Understanding them will help you interpret what you see:

What You See When the Page Loads

The page has several main areas. At the top right, you'll find a 'VIDEO TUTORIAL' button linking to instructional content and a 'WHAT'S ON THIS PAGE?' button that opens this help guide. Below that are the main page elements:

1. Filter Controls (Top of Page)

• Region dropdown (left side)

  Click to open a list of geographic regions: All, Americas, Europe, Asia Pacific, Africa, Middle East. Selecting a region filters the bar chart below to show only countries in that region. 'All' shows every country.

• Normalize checkbox and dropdown (right side)

  Check the box to divide each country's SRISK by a normalization factor. This lets you compare countries fairly. Without normalization, larger economies naturally show higher totals simply because they have more and larger banks. When checked, a dropdown appears letting you choose the normalization factor: GDP, market capitalization, or total assets.

• Countries dropdown (below the region/normalize controls)

  A multi-select dropdown listing all available countries. Click to open, then click countries you want to include. Use the 'SELECT ALL' button to include every country, or 'CLEAR' to deselect all. Selected countries appear as chips that you can click to remove individually.

2. Bar Chart (Main Visualization)

A horizontal bar chart fills most of the page. By default, each row is a country, with the bar extending to the right. Longer bars mean higher SRISK (more capital would be needed during a crisis). Countries are sorted by SRISK value, with the highest at the top. The x-axis shows SRISK in billions of USD. When you select a single country from the Countries dropdown, the bar chart switches to show the top SRISK firms within that country. Alternatively, click a country name on the y-axis to navigate to the SRISK analysis page for that country, where you can see detailed firm rankings and historical data.

3. Time Series Chart (Below the Bar Chart)

A line chart showing how SRISK has changed over time. This section is hidden on mobile devices due to screen size constraints.

• Use the date picker fields (From/To) at the bottom right of the chart to select a custom date range
• Or use the preset buttons (6M, 1Y, 2Y, 5Y, 10Y, All) to quickly jump to standard time periods
• Hover your mouse over any point on the line to see the exact SRISK value and date in a tooltip
• For select countries with capacity data, a 'Plot Capacity' checkbox appears. Check it to overlay the SRISK Capacity line on the chart. When SRISK exceeds capacity, a crisis becomes more likely than not. A second chart showing 'Probability of Crisis' also appears below the main time series.
• The 'No Capacity Data Available' checkbox filters the display to show only countries without crisis capacity estimates. This helps identify countries where additional research may be needed.
• Click the 'LOG IN TO DOWNLOAD DATA' button to export the data as a CSV file. You must be logged in to download.

Quick Start: Your First 60 Seconds

1. Look at the bar chart: the country at the top has the most systemic risk.
2. Check the Normalize box to see risk relative to economic size, which often changes the rankings.
3. Select a single country from the dropdown to see its top firms.
4. Scroll down to the Top 10 table to see which firms globally have the highest risk. Use the region dropdown to filter by a specific region.
5. Use the time series to see if risk is rising or falling compared to past crises.

Reading the Country Bar Chart

The horizontal bar chart is the main feature of this page. Each bar represents one country's total SRISK, the sum of capital shortfalls across all that country's banks if a crisis occurred.

Viewing a Single Country

There are two ways to explore a country's firms: 1) Select a single country from the Countries dropdown to transform the bar chart to show that country's top firms ranked by SRISK. 2) Click a country name on the y-axis to navigate directly to the SRISK analysis page for that country. The dropdown method keeps you on the welcome page; clicking the country name takes you to the full analysis page with more detailed data.

Understanding Normalization

Without normalization, countries with large financial sectors (many big banks) naturally show high totals. Check the 'Normalize' box and select a factor (GDP, market cap, or total assets) to compare risk relative to size. A smaller country with a stressed banking sector might rank higher when normalized than a large country with moderate risk spread across many stable banks.

Reading the Top 10 Firms Table

What the Table Shows

The Top 10 table at the bottom left shows the financial institutions with the highest SRISK. By default it displays the top 10 firms globally across all regions. A region dropdown below the title lets you filter to Africa, Americas, Asia, Europe, or United States; your filter preference is saved and persists across sessions. The 'SRISK ($m)' column shows SRISK in millions of dollars. These are the firms that would need the most emergency capital in a crisis. The same few large banks often appear here because their size and interconnectedness make them systemically important. Click any firm name to go to the SRISK Analysis page filtered to the selected region (or Global view), where you can see detailed data for that firm.

Understanding the Columns

The 'LRMES' column shows Long-Run Marginal Expected Shortfall: the percentage the firm's stock would likely fall if the market dropped 40% over six months. The 'LVG' column shows quasi-leverage (assets divided by market equity). High LRMES means the firm amplifies market stress. High leverage means the firm has less equity cushion. A firm can have high SRISK from either factor, or both.

Using the Time Series Chart

Reading Historical Patterns

The line chart shows SRISK over time for your selected countries. Look for spikes, which correspond to crisis periods. Look at the trend since the last spike: is risk returning to pre-crisis levels or staying elevated? A gradual upward trend might indicate building vulnerabilities.

Using Historical Peaks as Reference

Set the time range to include 2008 (financial crisis) or 2020 (COVID-19) to see what crisis-level SRISK looks like. Then compare: Is the current level near those peaks? Well below? The historical context tells you whether current conditions are unusual or within normal ranges.

Crisis Probability and SRISK Capacity

For 23 developed economies, V-Lab provides two additional measures that answer the question: how much systemic risk is too much? These features appear when you select a single country that has capacity data available.

SRISK Capacity

SRISK Capacity is the critical threshold at which crisis probability reaches 50%. Think of it as the financial system's tolerance for under-capitalization. When actual SRISK exceeds capacity, the system enters a danger zone where a crisis becomes more likely than not. To view it, select a single country (such as the United States) and check the 'Plot Capacity' checkbox. A blue line representing SRISK Capacity appears on the Total SRISK chart alongside the red SRISK area. When the red area rises above the blue line, SRISK has exceeded capacity.

Probability of Crisis Chart

When you select a single country with capacity data, a second chart titled 'Probability of Crisis' appears below the Total SRISK chart. This shows the estimated likelihood of a financial crisis based on current SRISK levels and historical relationships between capital shortfalls and crisis occurrence. The relationship is nonlinear: small changes near the capacity threshold produce large probability shifts, while changes far from the threshold have more muted effects. During the 2008 crisis, US crisis probability rose from under 2% in mid-2007 to over 75% by September 2008.

How to Access These Charts

Select a single country from the Countries dropdown. For countries with capacity data (mostly developed economies), the 'Plot Capacity' checkbox becomes active. Check it to see the capacity line overlaid on the SRISK time series, and the Probability of Crisis chart appears automatically below. Countries without capacity data will show the checkbox as disabled.

Analysis Links (Bottom Right Panel)

US Financials

Two links for US bank analysis: 'without Simulation' uses a beta-based calculation, while 'with Simulation' uses Monte Carlo simulation for more precision. Both update weekly. Click either to see detailed US bank rankings with full risk decomposition.

Global Financials

Links to the 'NYU Stern Systemic Risk Rankings of World Financials without Simulation' page. This analysis uses each bank's local market index (not just US markets) to calculate stress scenarios, making it appropriate for comparing banks across different countries.

Related Documents

Academic papers and research underlying V-Lab's systemic risk methodology, including papers on measuring systemic risk, dynamic conditional beta, capital shortfall measures, and macroprudential stress tests. These provide theoretical foundations for the SRISK calculations shown on this page.

Tips for Using the Controls

• Comparing Specific Countries

  Open the Countries dropdown and select only the countries you want to compare. The bar chart and time series will show just those countries, making direct comparison easier.

• Examining Historical Events

  To see the 2008 crisis: set the date range from Jan 2007 to Dec 2009. To see COVID-19 impact: set from Jan 2020 to Dec 2020. Use preset buttons (5Y, 10Y, All) for broader views.

• Drilling Into Bank Details

  After selecting a single country to see its firms, click any firm name in the bar chart to go to the SRISK analysis page filtered to that country. There you can see the full firm rankings, historical data, and detailed risk metrics for all firms in that region.

How SRISK Is Calculated

SRISK answers: How much capital would this bank need to survive a 40% market decline? The calculation combines three factors that determine vulnerability.

The Formula

SRISK = k × Debt − (1−k) × (1−LRMES) × Market Value. Here, k is the required capital ratio (8% for US banks, 5.5% for European banks due to accounting differences). The formula calculates expected capital shortfall: required capital minus what the bank would have left after crisis losses.

Three Drivers of SRISK

Each component contributes to a bank's systemic risk:

• Size (Total Assets)

  Larger banks pose greater systemic threats. A $2 trillion bank failing is more dangerous than a $20 billion bank failing, regardless of their risk profiles.

• Leverage (Assets/Market Equity)

  Higher leverage means less cushion to absorb losses. A bank with 25x leverage loses all its equity if assets drop just 4%. V-Lab uses quasi-leverage based on market equity, which updates daily.

• Market Sensitivity (LRMES)

  Banks that fall more than the market during stress contribute more to systemic risk. High LRMES means the bank amplifies rather than dampens market-wide shocks.

Data Updates and Sources

Weekly Updates

SRISK values are recalculated every Saturday morning using the latest stock prices and quarterly financial statements. This captures both market sentiment changes (via stock prices) and fundamental changes (via financials).

Market and Accounting Data

Stock prices provide daily signals about how the market views bank risk. Balance sheet data (debt, assets) comes from quarterly filings. The combination captures both market perception and fundamental position.

Coverage

Analysis covers financial institutions across the Americas, Europe, Asia, Africa, and the Middle East, including developed, emerging, and frontier markets. Coverage is most complete for large, publicly traded banks where market data and financial statements are readily available.

Understanding the Numbers

Why did SRISK change dramatically between weeks?

SRISK is calculated from stock prices, which move daily. When a bank's stock drops, its market value falls and its leverage effectively rises (same debt, less equity), causing SRISK to spike. Large market selloffs cause SRISK to rise across many banks simultaneously. Jumps can also occur when quarterly balance sheet data updates, as changes in reported debt or assets feed into the calculation. If you see a sudden jump, check whether the broader market fell that week or whether new quarterly filings were incorporated.

Some banks show negative SRISK. What does that mean?

Negative SRISK means the bank would still have more capital than required even after absorbing crisis losses. When viewing a single country's firms in the bar chart, firms with zero or negative SRISK may still appear if there aren't enough positive-SRISK firms to fill the ranking, but they will have no bar next to their name. In detailed views, you may see negative values. This indicates relative safety, but does not guarantee the bank cannot fail since models cannot capture every risk.

Why does one country have so much more SRISK than others?

Countries with large financial sectors have more and larger banks contributing to the total. The bar chart shows absolute risk, useful for understanding total system vulnerability. Check the 'Normalize' box to see risk relative to GDP, market cap, or total assets. A country with moderate absolute SRISK but small economy may actually be more vulnerable proportionally.

Crisis Probability Features

What does the Crisis Probability measure show?

For select countries, V-Lab estimates the probability of a financial crisis based on current SRISK levels. To view this, select a single country with capacity data and check the 'Plot Capacity' checkbox. A 'Probability of Crisis' chart will appear below the main SRISK time series. Higher SRISK relative to capacity typically means higher crisis probability. The measure uses historical relationships between SRISK levels and past crisis events.

What is 'SRISK Capacity'?

SRISK Capacity is the SRISK level at which crisis probability reaches 50%. Think of it as a threshold: if a country's SRISK exceeds its SRISK Capacity, a crisis is more likely than not based on historical patterns. Countries with high SRISK but even higher capacity are in relatively better shape than countries approaching their capacity limit.

Common Questions

Questions frequently asked by V-Lab users:

Why does a smaller bank sometimes rank higher than a huge bank?

SRISK depends on three factors: size, leverage, and market correlation (MES). A smaller bank with extremely high leverage or high MES can have higher SRISK than a larger, better-capitalized bank. Look at the Top 10 table columns to see what's driving each bank's ranking.

Is high SRISK always bad?

SRISK rises during all downturns, not just crises. Elevated SRISK during a recession is expected. What matters is context: Is current SRISK high relative to similar economic conditions in the past? Is it rising faster than historical patterns? Use the time series to compare current levels to similar phases in previous cycles.

Can one well-capitalized bank offset another bank's risk?

No. Country totals only sum positive SRISK values. A bank with $10 billion surplus cannot offset another bank's $10 billion shortfall because they are separate institutions. One bank's capital does not rescue another. This is intentional: systemic risk depends on who needs capital, not net industry capital.

How current is the data I'm seeing?

SRISK updates every Saturday morning. The 'Last Updated' date appears below the page title. Stock prices from the past week and the most recent quarterly financial filings are incorporated. If you're checking on a Friday, the data reflects the previous Saturday's calculation.

What to Do Next

• 1. Get the Big Picture

  Look at the bar chart with 'All' regions selected. Identify which countries show the longest bars. These have the most absolute systemic risk.

• 2. Drill Down on a Country

  Select a single country from the dropdown to see its top firms. Note which firms dominate that country's risk. Click a firm name to go to the SRISK analysis page for that country.

• 3. Check the Top 10 Table

  Scroll to the bottom left panel. By default, these are the most systemically important financial institutions globally. Use the region dropdown to focus on a specific region. Look at the LRMES and LVG columns to understand why each ranks high.

• 4. Explore Historical Patterns

  Use the time series chart. Set the date range to 'All' to see the full history. Note where major spikes occurred and how current levels compare.

For Deeper Analysis

• Compare Normalized vs. Absolute

  Toggle the Normalize checkbox on and off. Watch how country rankings change. Countries that rank higher when normalized have elevated risk relative to their economic size.

• Focus on Your Region

  If you're interested in European banks, select 'Europe' from the Region dropdown. The bar chart and time series now show only European countries.

• Follow Specific Firms Over Time

  Select a single country, then click a firm of interest in the bar chart. You can also use the search bar in the main navigation: with the GMES, MES, or MESSIM models, just click the arrow button (→) to go directly to the analysis page. With the DMES model, the search is enabled—type a ticker or institution name to find specific datasets. Analysis pages show full SRISK rankings, historical trends, and detailed risk metrics.

• Use Crisis Periods as Benchmarks

  In the time series, note the peak SRISK during 2008-2009 and 2020. These are your reference points. When current values approach those peaks, pay closer attention.

• Check Crisis Probability (If Available)

  For countries with capacity data, select a single country and check the 'Plot Capacity' checkbox. The Probability of Crisis chart below the time series shows the estimated likelihood of a crisis given current conditions.

• Consider Portfolio Exposure

  If your portfolio holds financial stocks, check which banks have the highest SRISK. Concentrated exposure to high-SRISK institutions increases your portfolio's vulnerability during market stress.