Correlation Analysis Page — User Guide
Click asset pairs in the matrix to compare their correlation time series and see how relationships change
Contents
Page Overview
Essential Concepts
Navigation Guide
Data Interpretation
Practical Applications
Understanding Data
Troubleshooting
Tips & Best Practices
Essential Concepts
These terms appear in the charts and statistics on this page:
Correlation Matrix
The grid of colored cells showing correlations between every pair of assets. Each row and column represents one asset. The diagonal cells (where an asset meets itself) represent perfect correlation.
Why it matters: Darker red cells indicate higher correlation. Click any cell to add that asset pair's correlation time series to the chart below. Click again to remove it.
Average Correlation
The mean of all pairwise correlations in the group. Shown in the header and in the date picker chart.
Why it matters: The header shows today's average correlation and whether it increased or decreased (+ or - in parentheses). Red text means correlations increased; green means they decreased.
Median Correlation (with 5th/95th)
The median line shows the middle correlation across all pairs. The upper and lower lines show the 5th and 95th percentile, bounding the range of correlations.
Why it matters: When the gap between upper and lower is narrow, all pairs behave similarly. When it's wide, some pairs are highly correlated while others are not.
Principal Factors (1st and 2nd)
The percentage of total variation explained by the main underlying drivers. The 1st factor is usually 'the market'. When this factor explains a lot, all assets move together.
Why it matters: If 1st Factor is 80%+, your assets mostly move as a group. Lower values mean more independent movement and better diversification potential.
Dynamic Correlations
Correlations that change over time based on recent market behavior. Unlike static correlations, dynamic estimates adapt to current market conditions using various econometric models.
Why it matters: Correlations spike during crises. Assets that seem uncorrelated in calm markets often move together during stress. Dynamic models capture this, showing you current relationships rather than historical averages.
Data Interpretation
The charts and statistics help you understand how assets in this group relate to each other and how those relationships change over time.
Reading the Time Series
Key patterns to look for in the charts:
- Correlation Spikes
Sharp upward moves in the correlation lines indicate stress periods (2008, 2020) when all assets moved together.
- Median vs Quantile Gap
When the 5th and 95th percentile lines are far apart, correlations vary widely across pairs. When they're close, all pairs behave similarly.
- Factor Dominance
If the 1st Factor line is consistently high (above 70-80%), the market factor dominates and diversification within this group is limited.
- Individual Pair Lines
When you click matrix cells, each pair appears as a separate colored line. Pairs with lines consistently below the group offer better diversification potential. Pairs consistently above the group move together more than typical.
- Correlation Trends
A gradual upward trend over months or years suggests assets are becoming more interconnected, often due to globalization or sector convergence. A downward trend suggests increasing independence between assets.
- Comparing Multiple Pairs
Select several pairs to compare side-by-side. During stress periods (2008, 2020), most correlations spike upward. Pairs whose correlations increase less during crises maintain diversification benefits when you need them most.
Practical Applications
Download Data
Click matrix cells to select the pairs you want, then click the 'DOWNLOAD' button above the time series chart. You must be logged in to download.
Compare Models
Check the Related Models list on the right side to see other correlation models for this dataset (e.g., DCC vs DECO). Compare how different models estimate correlations.
Historical Analysis
Use the date range controls to zoom into specific periods. Look for correlation spikes during 2008, 2011, 2015, 2020 and other volatile periods.
Assess Diversification
Before adding an asset to your portfolio, check its correlations with your existing holdings. Low correlations (below 0.5) suggest diversification benefits. If correlations with most holdings exceed 0.7, the new asset may not reduce portfolio risk as much as expected.
Understanding Data
The correlations shown on this page are updated daily using dynamic models that allow relationships to change over time based on recent market behavior.
Daily Updates
Each day, the model is re-estimated with the latest data. After volatile days, correlations typically increase. After calm days, they tend to decrease.
Troubleshooting
Common Questions
How do I select correlation pairs to compare?
Click any off-diagonal cell in the matrix to add that pair's time series to the chart. Click a diagonal cell to add all pairs involving that asset. Click 'CLEAR ALL' to remove all selections.
How do I download the data?
First select the pairs you want by clicking matrix cells. Then click the 'DOWNLOAD' button above the time series chart. You must be logged in with a V-Lab account.
How do I switch between Median and Factor views?
Use the dropdown selector above the time series charts. 'Median Correlation' shows the median line with 5th and 95th percentile bands. 'Principal Factors' shows factor exposure percentages.
Understanding the Charts
Common questions about interpreting what you see:
Why do correlations spike suddenly during certain periods?
During market stress (2008, 2020, etc.), fear and forced selling affect all assets simultaneously. Assets that normally move independently start moving together. This is visible as sharp upward spikes in the correlation lines.
What if the matrix shows dark red (high correlations) everywhere?
High correlations throughout mean the assets in this group move together most of the time. Diversification within this group is limited since assets tend to rise and fall together.
What does it mean when 1st Factor is above 80%?
When the first principal component explains 80%+ of variance, a single 'market factor' dominates all assets. They essentially move as a group. Diversification within this asset set is limited.
What are the Related Models links on the right?
V-Lab offers different correlation models for each dataset. DCC (Dynamic Conditional Correlation) is the standard model that tracks how correlations change based on recent market movements. DCC-NL (Nonlinear) is designed for datasets with many assets, where it provides more stable estimates. DECO (Dynamic Equicorrelation) assumes all assets in the group share the same average correlation level, useful for seeing overall market trends. Click the links to see the same dataset analyzed with a different model and compare the results.
Tips & Best Practices
Here's how to quickly analyze correlations using this page:
Finding Historical Patterns
Scroll through the time series to find crisis periods. Look for correlation spikes around 2008 (financial crisis), 2011 (European debt), 2020 (COVID). Notice how correlations spiked and then gradually returned toward normal levels.
Applying to Portfolio Decisions
When evaluating a potential investment, compare its correlation with your existing holdings during both calm and stressed periods. An asset with low correlations during normal times but high correlations during crises (2008, 2020) provides less protection when you need it most. Focus on pairs whose correlations remain relatively low even during stress periods.
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