V-Lab
Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 28th, 2026
1 Day
20.73%
increased by 3.78%
1 Week
20.86%
increased by 3.91%
1 Month
21.32%
increased by 4.37%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 28, 2026 at 08:13 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 20, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 131% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0490 | 22.69*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0592 | 11.04*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8800 | 159.99*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0776 | 10.87*** |
Persistence:
0.978
Half-life:
31 days
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